US Clings to AI and Quantum Computing Edge While China Leads Robotics and Manufacturing
"We don't have an edge in robotics. In fact, there are a number of different technological domains where China clearly has leadership," warns renowned historian Niall Ferguson, revealing a dramatic shift in the global technological landscape that threatens America's long-presumed innovation dominance.
The United States now retains technological superiority only in artificial intelligence and possibly quantum computing while falling behind China in multiple critical tech sectors, writes End of Miles.
America's Narrowing Tech Edge
Ferguson, a Hoover Institution senior fellow at Stanford and one of the world's leading historians, delivered this stark assessment during a recent interview on Uncommon Knowledge. His analysis challenges the widespread American belief that the U.S. maintains broad technological superiority across all cutting-edge fields.
"We have a fighting chance [against China], we have a fighting chance in that technology. The problem we have here is that while we have got leadership in certain areas—I think we still have leadership particularly when it comes to training large language models in AI and we've probably got an edge in quantum computing—we don't have an edge in robotics." Niall Ferguson
The Oxford-educated historian emphasized that this technological shift directly impacts military capability in ways that could prove decisive in any potential future conflict, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region where tensions over Taiwan continue to simmer.
Drones and the Future of Warfare
The Stanford scholar pointed to Ukraine's current conflict with Russia as a preview of how technological superiority now outweighs traditional manufacturing capacity. The war demonstrates how modern warfare increasingly depends on technological edge rather than industrial output alone.
"Most of the Russian casualties—60% of Russian casualties in recent months—have been killed by drones. The drones are why Ukraine has held up because it's just astonishing how effectively they've been able to ramp up production as well as make themselves leaders in the technology." Ferguson
According to Ferguson, Americans must abandon outdated assumptions about technological superiority dating from the Cold War era or even the post-Soviet "unipolar moment" of the 1990s. The geopolitical landscape has fundamentally changed, with China having achieved not just manufacturing dominance but also leadership in multiple technological domains.
The Existential Risk to American Primacy
The policy expert's assessment extends beyond pure technological competition to its geopolitical implications, particularly regarding Taiwan—which he described as "the HQ of the AI industry" where "nearly all the most sophisticated semiconductors get manufactured."
"The fate of this Administration and of Donald Trump's reputation hinges on whether his realpolitik...avoids China gaining Taiwan. If China gains Taiwan, I think that is the end of American primacy in the Indo-Pacific. If it's the end of American primacy in the Indo-Pacific, I think it's at least the twilight of the reserve currency status of the dollar and the 10-year treasury." Ferguson
The historian drew an alarming parallel between America's current position and that of Britain in the 1930s—a declining power facing formidable adversaries with superior industrial capacity in certain domains. Unlike previous eras of American strength, Ferguson suggested the U.S. can no longer simply outproduce competitors in a crisis.
The Manufacturing Reality
Ferguson highlighted the dramatic reversal in manufacturing capability between China and the United States over the past two decades—a transformation that fundamentally alters global power dynamics.
"China is now a manufacturing superpower," he explained. "Manufacturing value added is two times that of the United States. In 2004, ours was two times that of China's. So there's been a huge reversal of hard power."
The warning from one of the world's leading geopolitical thinkers comes amid increasing technological competition between the U.S. and China, with both nations investing heavily in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and other advanced technologies while simultaneously limiting the other's access to critical components and knowledge.
For Americans accustomed to technological primacy since World War II, Ferguson's assessment represents a wake-up call about the rapidly changing balance of global technological power—and the profound security implications that follow.
