Human Capital Is Now a "Depreciating Asset," Warns AI Expert Bostrom
"Human capital is a depreciating asset in this world of advancing AI," warns philosopher and artificial intelligence researcher Nick Bostrom, suggesting that traditional career investments might deliver diminishing returns as AI capabilities expand.
The stark assessment comes from Bostrom's recent discussion with researcher Jonathan B of the Cosmos Institute, writes End of Miles.
Rethinking career investments
According to Bostrom, the traditional path of investing years in specialized training before reaping financial rewards is becoming increasingly precarious. The Oxford philosopher points to a fundamental shift in how we should evaluate professional development decisions in an era of accelerating AI capabilities.
"Investments with very long payback times, if you're doing them only because of the ultimate payoff of a higher salary 20 years into the future, should be discounted accordingly," Bostrom explains. "You would have to have scenarios where AI development takes longer or where it gets so regulated that they can't perform these particular jobs." Nick Bostrom
This assessment challenges conventional wisdom about career planning, particularly for professions requiring extended training periods like medicine and law. Bostrom suggests that the accelerating pace of AI advancement could dramatically alter the expected value calculation for these career trajectories.
Capital versus labor in the AI transition
Bostrom framed the situation as part of a broader historical trend in the relationship between capital and labor. While discussing how AI will impact various human activities, he identified capital over labor as a key dimension where AI's impact will be particularly pronounced.
"AI will make labor abundant and so practically if I'm someone in law school or someone in medical school training 10-20 years before I can start making capital, I'm building up a skill that trade-off suddenly seems a lot less attractive." Nick Bostrom
The perspective reinforces recent AI demonstrations in legal analysis, medical diagnosis, and other historically specialized fields that have surprised experts with their competence despite having no formal training or credentials.
Hedging career bets
While Bostrom acknowledges the uncertainty in precisely how quickly AI capabilities will advance, he advises a balanced approach rather than abandoning skill development entirely.
"We don't know how long that will take. It makes sense to hedge your bets a bit. You don't want to find yourself 18 or 20 going on the labor market with no skills and it turns out the whole AI transition has been delayed." Nick Bostrom
For those concerned about navigating this uncertain transition, Bostrom suggests prioritizing areas that might prove more resistant to AI substitution, including domains where human relationships and social connections remain intrinsically valuable.
The evolution of AI's relationship to human work continues to progress faster than many predicted, with each new model demonstrating capabilities that further compress the timeline for potential economic disruption. Policymakers and educational institutions face growing pressure to reconsider traditional credentialing and training systems in response to this acceleration.
